Us Recession Probability 2024. In following months, the model's recession forecast went on to rise above an 80% probability, which would apply for the months between july 2023 and july 2024. There's an 85% chance the us economy will enter a recession in 2024, the economist david rosenberg says.

Meanwhile, a new york fed measure, updated earlier this month, opens new tab, flags a 57.1% recession probability by january 2024, up from the 47.3%. View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.